Week 16 of the college football regular season brings us the annual Commander-in-Chief Trophy game between Army and Navy. Last week’s college football picks were again 1-2 ATS. It has not been a banner year for us with our NCAA football picks and we sit just 21-26 ATS year to date. However, our NCAA feature games of the week are 4-3 ATS overall and we have been solid with our NFL selections all season.
This year’s 125th meeting between Navy (8-3, 6-2) and Army (11-1, 8-0) will take place at Northwest Stadium, the home of the Washington Commanders, for just the second time in history. Both teams are having excellent seasons and were, at one time, in the hunt for a college football playoff berth.
Army won the American Athletic Conference with a perfect 8-0 record and defeating Tulane 35-14 in the conference championship game. The Black Knights will play Marshall in the Independence Bowl. Navy had an excellent season as well, finishing 8-3 and earning a bowl bid versus Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Army has defeated Navy in the last two years and three out of the last four.
Navy Midshipman vs. Army Black Knights Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Money Line |
| Navy | +6.5 (-105) | ov 39 (-110) | +210 |
| Army | -6.5 (-115) | u 39 (-110) | -275 |
| **Odds Subject to Change** | |||
Navy Midshipman vs. Army Black Knights Match Details
- Fixture: Navy Midshipman vs. Army Black Knights
- Date and Time: December 14, 2024 3:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Key Stats
Navy Midshipman
Navy ranks 134th in the country in total offense and 10th in rush offense. The Midshipmen are run-based averaging just 128 yards passing yards per game and are led by dual-threat quarterback Blake Horvath. Horvath averages 115.4 yards passing,134 yards rushing per game, and 24 total touchdowns. Navy’s top receiving threat is Eli Heidenreich with 36 catches and five touchdowns.
The Midshipman ranks 98th in scoring defense allowing 23.18 points per game. Time of possession will be a huge key for the Midshipman, as Black Knights are tops in the country controlling the ball for nearly 60% of the time in their games this season.
Army Black Knights
The Black Knights are another run-dominant offense but are even better, ranked 2nd in the country at 314.4 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Bryson Daily is another dual-threat quarterback with 1141 combined yards and 37 total touchdowns. Defensively, Army is ranked 55th in scoring defense allowing 15 points per game.
Daily is the catalyst for the Black Knights and does deserve some Heisman consideration. Daily’s 29 rushing scores are tied for second in the nation with Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. Navy must contain Daily to have any chance of upsetting the Black Knights. With their next win, this Army senior class will deliver the program’s first-ever 12-win season.
Prediction
Let us get down to the nuts and bolts. Army is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS this season, Navy enters at 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. This Navy senior class has not beaten the Black Knights since 2022 and will be extra motivated for this one. The Midshipmen will also have a slight advantage with this game just 30 minutes from Annapolis.
The public is all over the Army, and rightfully so, with 86% of the tickets and 93% of the money bets. Navy is 7-3 ATS in their last ten overall, and on the road, they are 4-1 ATS in the last five and 6-4 ATS in their last ten. We are simply going to fade the public and take the midshipman. In addition, we get points with a shrinking game total now down to 39. Buy the full point to get Navy at 7.5 for a betting edge.
