That is two straight weeks for us, cashing in our weekly NFL parlay, so let’s stay white hot and go for three straight in week 12. Remember, we also play these picks on a money line parlay and straight up. Last week’s sweep brings our record to 18-15 ATS and all four bonus leans cashed. We tend to avoid public plays, which are traditionally the betting favorite.
In addition, we play these weekly selections in a money-line parlay and straight up because, in general, parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlay targets games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. We are going to have to grind extra hard in week 12 as these lines are very tough to decipher, compared to weeks past. With that being said, here we go with Week 12: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Dolphins-Patriots over 46
The opening leg of our parlay is the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots over 46. This is the second meeting between these AFC East foes, Miami defeated New England 15-10 back in October. The score went well under the posted 37. In divisional games, we look to play on the next betting angle as discussed in our wagering series. With the first meeting going under the posted total, we will play on the over in rematch.
Vegas books also are in line with our thinking as they are expecting more points setting the total much this time around. Now obviously part of that is the return of Tua under center for the Dolphins. However, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has injected some life into the New England offense as well. The Patriots are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 overall and as an underdog. On the Miami side, the over is 3-2 in their last five and 3-0 in their last three at home.
Parlay Leg #2: Chicago Bears +3.5
In the middle parlay leg, we will take the Chicago Bears +3.5 versus the Minnesota Vikings. We are just going with a public fade on this one. Minnesota is seeing the majority of the ticket and money bets at the week’s start, however, Chicago is 6-4 ATS overall this season and 5-1 ATS at home. If we go out further, the Bears are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 at home. Minnesota checks in a just 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite for -1.36 units. Give us the underdog Bears at home for parlay leg number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Seattle Seahawks -1
In the anchor leg, we will take the Seattle Seahawks -1 over the Arizona Cardinals. A little out of character for us to back a favorite, but in essence, we taking Seattle as a pick ’em at home. The Seahawks are 8-2 SU in their last 10 as a favorite and 7-3 SU in their last 10 versus Arizona. On the other side, Arizona is just 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Seahawks and 4-6 in the last 10. We will back the Seahawks at home to close out our week 12 parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +564 / ML +855
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: Will be updated on Sunday morning!
