We are back for Week 7 of our NCAA football parlay, to recap, we went 1-2 ATS with our parlay picks and missed on our parlay. That brings us to a 9-10 record ATS year with our NCAA picks, as we look to get back over the .500 mark this week. We will have full disclosure each week to track progress. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
In addition, you can play these picks straight up or as a money-line parlay. This week our NCAA Football Parlay plays are targeting games with a reverse line movement or where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day.
The betting lines are those posted by the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. To be a profitable sports bettor, the odds are in your favor to stay away from public plays, usually the betting favorite.
Parlay Leg #1: Washington Huskies +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
We find our first reverse line movement this week in the opening parlay leg. The Washington Huskies +3 against the Iowa Hawkeyes is where we go to get started. Iowa comes in getting 57% of the spread bets and yet the opening line of Iowa -4 has dropped to -2.5. We will gladly take the points here in a game with an implied total of only 41.
These two teams statistically are evenly matched averaging nearly the same points per game and points allowed per game. Washington is 7-3 SU in the last ten games, 6-4 ATS in the last ten as an underdog, and 8-2 SU in their last 10 away games. We buy the hook here and back the Huskies.
Parlay Leg #2: West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
The middle leg of our parlay and next reverse line movement game is the West Virginia Mountaineers +3 versus the Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State is getting 68% of the spread and 75% of the money bets and the opening 3.5 has dropped to 3. West Virginia is 6-4 ATS the spread in their last 10 home games and 6-4 ATS their last 10 as an underdog. Iowa State is a strong 4-1 ATS this season but only 5-5 SU in their last 10 versus West Virginia.
Parlay Leg #3: Colorado Buffaloes +4
The final leg of our parlay is the Colorado Buffaloes +4 against the Kansas State Wildcats. We target another reverse-line movement in the last leg as Kansas State is getting 87% of the spread and 93% of the money bets and the opening line of 6 has dropped two points to the current 4. This is one of the strongest sharp plays we found in week seven. Colorado is a profitable 3-2 ATS this season, 3-0 ATS in their last three games, and 7-3 ATS in their last ten. Give us the Buffaloes at home to wrap up this week’s NCAA Football Parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: Via FanDuel Sportsbook
ATS Parlay Odds: +382 Money Line Parlay Odds: +1087
Bonus Lean: Eastern Michigan +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
*Odds Subject to Change*
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