Week 1 of the NCAA football season has arrived and each week we will feature a three-team NCAA football parlay. You can also play these same picks and parlay the money line. Our NCAA Football Parlays will target sharps plays. Sharp plays are betting lines indicating reverse line movements, a line hold, or games where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day.
The betting lines are those posted at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. To be a profitable sports bettor, the odds are in your favor to stay away from public plays, usually the betting favorite. Look no further than last night as Colorado was a double-digit chalk over North Dakota and did not cover.
Parlay Leg #1: West Virginia Mountaineers +8.5
Play number one for this week’s NCAA Football parlay is West Virginia +8.5 versus the Penn St. Nittany Lions. The sharps are on West Virginia in Week One as evidenced by the reverse line movement. Penn State opened at -9.5, taking 65% of spread bets and 89% of the money line bets, but the line has since dropped to 8.5.
WVU led by dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene has key players returning on offense. WVU led the Big 12 in rushing last season and was fifth in scoring. The Mountaineers and Coach Neal Brown will also look to avenge last year’s 38-15 defeat at home to the Nittany Lions. Make no mistake a tough matchup for WVU, but they were 8-5 ATS last season and leg one of our parlay.
Parlay Leg #2: Clemson Tigers +12.5
Play number two for this week’s NCAA Football parlay is Clemson +8.5 versus the Georgia Bulldogs. Another sharp play here as Georgia opened up as nearly a two-touchdown favorite. Georgia is getting 65% of the side bets and 97% of the money line bets, and yet the line has dropped to 12.5.
As of Tuesday, Vegas Books were expecting money to come in on Georgia as the week progressed and as we get closer to kickoff the books were predicting they would need Clemson to cover. As of 3 P.M. Friday, sharp money came in on the Tigers. We will follow suit, side with the books, and play on Clemson. As well as Georgia played last year, they were only 6-8 ATS and this is a great spot for Clemson to get back on track after last year’s four-loss season.
Parlay Leg #3: USC +4.5
Our final play for this week’s NCAA Football parlay is USC +4.5 versus the LSU Tigers. Once again another reverse line movement, with sharp bettors wagering on USC. LSU is getting 61% of the spread and 92% of the money line bets, yet the line has dropped from 6.5 to 4.5. Public bettors are all over LSU, not an overall profitable betting scenario. Lsu opened all summer as a 6.5-point favorite and on Aug. 21 dropped to 4.5.
Both teams will feature new starting quarterbacks, with USC having the edge with Miller Moss. He started for USC in last year’s bowl game versus Louisville. Moss was 23 for 33 for 372 yards and six touchdowns and was named MVP in his first start. In addition, LSU has not won its season opener since 2019. We take USC as the final leg in our week one parlay.
Total Parlay Odds:
Via BetMGM, ATS parlay +581 and Moneyline parlay +4099.
*Odds subject to change*
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