The UK’s premier MMA event of the year is upon us, as UFC 304 takes over the working class city of Manchester. Despite the unfavorable start time for those faithful UK fans, who could be in attendance till as late as 6 am local time, the arena should be thunderous come ringwalk time for Champions Leon Edwards and Tom Aspinall. In this piece, we look at who the biggest potential upsets to the status quo could be come July 27th.
Could Kape Catch Mokaev at UFC 304?
Mohammed Mokaev has been the jewel in the crown of the UK MMA talent influx over the last few years. Far from a typical British brawler, he favors a relentless grappling-heavy style more akin to the fighters who hail from Dagestan, where he was born. In his most recent bout with Alex Perez, his win was far from definitive, and had it been a five-round fight, the momentum would have appeared to be shifting towards Perez by the third round.
As for Manel Kape, the game plan is simple. Try to keep his back off the fence, and force Mokaev to stand and exchange with him. Scoring at least one knockdown in his last four outings, Kape is a tough ask for anyone in the 125lb division. Make no mistake, Mokaev is an immensely impressive grappler, but if Kape can endure the initial waves of pressure, he may find himself with openings to connect on the prospect that Perez couldn’t seem to take full advantage of. Kape by Knockout is currently around +450 to win, and around +2300 to do so in the third round.
Decision Win for Active Oban?
Oban Elliott may not have had the most convincing of starts to his UFC tenure, but he was busy. He takes on the 11-4 Preston Parsons, who has been marred with inconsistency in his 2-2 UFC stint thus far. Although currently the underdog, Elliott is the more active and accurate striker of the pair statistically, as well as the more defensively sound.
Parsons may be the more nuanced wrestler of the pairing, but “The Welsh Gangster” is happy to see who is the more hard-nosed of the two when it comes time to scramble on Saturday. At +275, a decision victory for the Wales native looks a more than fair price for UFC 304.
Could Blaydes End Talk of Aspinall vs Jones?
Let me make clear that I believe Tom Aspinall to be the most talented and skilled heavyweight in the game today. With that being said, Curtis Blaydes as a +300 underdog seems outrageous. Three of the heaviest hitters of all time have managed to catch Blaydes in Ngannou, Lewis, and Pavlovich, but that’s it.
The Colorado native has managed to put a dampener on many a hype train, including a second-round knockout over the two-weight terror Jailton Almeida in his most recent effort. Aspinall’s lone loss in the UFC comes at the hands on Curtis Blaydes, although a freak accident played the largest part in that win.
Since then, the Englishman has rattled off two straight, decisive wins in a row. He is yet to face a grappler, the ilk of the NJCAA tournament winner he stands across from at UFC 304. While it is hard to garner much information from their last bout, due to an unfortunate knee injury for Aspinall just three seconds in, Blaydes does in fact hold the win.
It is heavyweight MMA after all, and with Blaydes to win on the judge’s scorecard at +1000, and a submission at a startling +2500, it may be worth a dollar or two, even though Aspinall marauding to victory looks the most likely outcome. What do you think the biggest upset will be at UFC 304?
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