2025 AL Cy Young Award Winner Odds, Analysis, & Prediction

This 2025 AL Cy Young Award Winner Odds, Analysis, & Prediction will look at the current futures betting numbers and analyze five pitchers in the Senior Circuit who should have a shot to win this annual pitching award. Last year, the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal won the award, and this year, oddsmakers have the Red Sox’ Garrett Crochet as the slight favorite. So who are the AL Cy Young favorites in this market? Are there any long shots worth consideration? Let’s toe up the rubber and think about it.

2025 AL Cy Young Award Winner Odds

• Garrett Crochet, Red Sox +300
• Tarik Skubal, Tigers +350
• Logan Gilbert, Mariners +700
• Cole Ragans, Royals +700
• Hunter Brown, Astros +1800
• Max Fried, Yankees +1800
• Jacob deGrom, Rangers +1800
• Framber Valdez, Astros +3000
• Pablo López, Twins +3000
• Luis Castillo, Mariners +4500
• Bryan Woo, Mariners +4500
• Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays +4500
• Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers +4500
• Jack Flaherty, Tigers +4500
• Casey Mize, Tigers +5000
• Kris Bubic, Royals +5000
• Bryce Miller, Mariners +5500
• Ryan Pepiot, Rays +5500
• Gavin Williams, Guardians +5500
• Joe Ryan, Twins +6000
• Taj Bradley, Rays +8000
• Tanner Bibee, Guardians +8000
• Yusei Kikuchi, Angels +8000
• Easton Lucas, Blue Jays +8000
• Shane Baz, Rays +8500
• Seth Lugo, Royals +8500
• Carlos Rodón, Yankees +8500
• Bowden Francis, Blue Jays +8500
• Jack Leiter, Rangers +8500

Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (3/1)

Boston ace LHP Garrett Crochet (1-1, 1.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) is the oddsmakers’ favorites in the AL Cy Young futures market, but the 25-year-old southpaw is off to a sluggish start and could also use some help from the Red Sox (18/1 to win 2025 World Series) offense. In his last start vs. the Blue Jays this week, Crochet lost 6-1, but only one of the four runs he allowed was earned.

He gave up five hits, walked four, and had five strikeouts. Crochet was brilliant vs the Orioles in his second start, going a career-high 8.0 IP, allowing four hits and zero ER in a shutout victory at Baltimore. In his opening start, Crochet went 5.0 IR, allowed two ER, five hits, two walks, and struck out four. Last season on the woe-is-me White Sox, Crochet went 6-12 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.

Tarik Skubal, Tigers (+350)

Detroit has a nice starting staff with Tarik Skubal (6-3, 240), Jack Flaherty (45/1 to win AL Cy Young Award), Casey Mize (50/1), Reese Olson, and Jackson Jobe. After losing his first two starts of the 2025 MLB Regular Season, LHP Skubal (1-2, 3.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) shut out the Yankees for his first win on April 8, going 6.0 IP, allowing 4 hits and 0 ER with zero walks and six strikeouts.

Last season, Skubal went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP and won the 2024 AL Cy Young Award, getting all 30 1st-place votes from the BBWAA. Despite the average start this time around, Skubal may still be the arm to beat this season. Here are the 2024 AL pitching stats where Skubal finished on top:

• Wins: 18
• Win-Loss %: .818
• ERA: 2.39
• WAR: 6.4
• Strikeouts: 228

Jacob deGrom, Rangers (18/1)

Texas RHP Jacob deGrom (0-0, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) is 36 years old, but if the Rangers can have a good season and the tall (6-4) veteran can thrive, he may have an outside shot at winning the AL Cy Young Award. One thing is for sure: This field is wide open this season. After coming over from the Mets in 2023, deGrom has been hampered by injuries.

2023, he started six games, and in 2024, he started just three. In two starts this year, he has gone 10.2 IP and has nine strikeouts and two walks. Too much has to go right for deGrom and Texas this season—including staying injury-free—and until he proves to have some durability and stamina for the Rangers, it’s hard to see him having a statistically superior season. Pass.

Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays (45/1)

Like deGrom with the Rangers, the Blue Jays (50/1 to win the 2025 World Series) will have to have a competitive season for RHP Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.33 ERA, 0.62 WHIP) to have a shot at winning the AL Cy Young Award. At least Gausman (6-2, 225) is off to a nice start. In his last start in Boston, Gausman was brilliant, going 8.0 IP and allowing just four hits and zero ER in a no-decision.

In his second start, Gausman lost a tough one at the Mets, going 5.1 IP and allowing three ER on just two hits. And in his first start, Gausman went 6.0 IP, allowed three hits and two ER, and earned his first win vs. the Orioles. This is a guy who can win this award, and at this price, he is definitely worth some consideration. Last season, the 34-year-old Gausman went 14-11 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

Kris Bubic, Royals (50/1)

A nice longshot from this distance, Royals LHP Kris Bubic is off to an amazing statistical start with a 2-0 record, a sparkling 0.00 ER, and a 0.79 WHIP. Bubic has allowed seven hits and walked three heading into his third start. Last year, Bubic went 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, all from the Royals’ bullpen.

Now he is a starter, and if Kansas City can make the AL Playoffs, Bubic—a Stanford product—may be a big reason why. His next two scheduled starts are Friday, April 11, at Cleveland vs. Tanner Bibee and Wednesday, April 16, at the Yankees and Marcus Stroman (7:05 EST/4:05 PST, PRIME VIDEO).

Final Thoughts and AL Cy Young Winner Pick

This seems like a choice between last year’s winner Skubal and longshot Gausman, and it’s always important to remember this award is determined by a vote of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA). Last year, this group gave all of its 1st-place votes to Skubal, and rightfully so. But this season, they may be looking for a reason to vote for someone else.

Skubal’s teammate Mize (50/1) is off to a great start and may be worth a look. If the Tigers can play up to their potential and get some solid hitting to go along with their improved pitching—they signed Flaherty from the Dodgers in the offseason—there is a decent chance that Skubal can repeat. His two-seam fastball tops out at 97 mph, while his four-seam fastball has been clocked at 102 mph.

Final Pick for AL Cy Young

Tarik Skubal +350